On the other hand,上海会所he past, the Fed now has t

to take the delayed effect of balance sheet reduction conducted earlier into its consideration of rate cuts. The current phase-out of balanc

上海会所e sheet reduction already has some easing effect, and only after the balance sheet reduction ends in September, can its impact become clearer.

By incorporating that impact into consideration, the Fed can draw up a better rate cut plan that maximizes effects of the policy mix.上海会所

Thirdly, the market may have overestimated how much the Fed will cut the rates. There may be no more than three rate cuts by the end of 2020.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard – the major advocate of this

round of rate cut – has suggested the use of the modern-day Taylor rule, which fairly well explains th上海会所

e Fed’s interest rate decisions. Even based on this model adopted by dovish Fed officials, we found that the degree of rate cuts may be weaker than m

上海会所arket expectation for quite some time going forward: at most one cut by the end of this year and likely two or three cuts by the end of 2020.

By contrast, before the June FOMC meeting, the market expected a higher-than-85-percent chance of more than one rate cut by the

end of this year as well as an about 60-percent chance of more than three cuts by the end of 2020, according to Bloomberg data.上海会所品茶微信

In conclusion, we think as economic downside pressure gradually emerges, the Fed will have to kick off the rate cut cycle. But the rate cut si上海会所品茶微信

gnal, timing and degree may not measure up to the market expectation. Therefore, two future developments appear possible:

First, investor sentiment can reverse drastically if the Fed’s action fails to meet market expec上海会所品茶微信

tation. Considering the market has fully priced in the unrealistic expectation of rate cuts sinc

e early June, any reversal of expectation can lead to short-term fluctuations of key price signals such as the US Treasury yield cu

rve, the US Dollar Index, and the gold price, which may pose extensive spillover shocks to asset portfolios.

Second, the long-term trend of rate cuts will continue even if the market expectation reverses. In the long

run, the Fed is expected to proceed with rate cuts in a fairly slow and smooth way. This will enlarge the monetary policy room of ot

her major economies and expedite the shift toward an easing global monetary environment, which may in turn lift the sen

timent of global stock markets and ease any currency risk of emerging markets gradually.

Cheng Shi is the managing director, head of research and chief economist of ICBC Interna

tional Holdings Ltd.Qian Zhijun is a senior economist of ICBC International Holdings Ltd.

chitudoudemao.cn

In the 1950s, the Amer 上海千花网try was seen as the

e prototype of how business should be run. Car company executives were seen as the most capable manage

 上海千花网品茶微信rs. In 1953, president Eisenhower chose Charles Wilson, known as “engine Charlie,” to be his Secretary of Defense.

Then, in 1961, president Kennedy chose Ford president Robert McNamara for the same position. (Of course, McNamara’s incredible mismanagement of the war in Vietnam reduced any confidence that car company executives were especially competent.)

By the late 1960s, the “big three “car companies in the US – General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler – formed a virtual oligopoly and turned lazy. 上海千花网

I remember American cars my father bought in these years often overheating and breaking down by the side of the road. Dad would have to stay by the car with my m

other and sisters while I walked a long way to find a service station and arrange a tow. (This was long before mobile phones.) 上海千花网品茶微信

So, American consumers were ready for more competitive Japanese-made cars, which had consistently high

er quality, to enter the market. My father switched to Japanese cars in the 1970s, and never bought another American-made car. 上海千花网

American car companies saw their profits fall and were not able to pay their workers t

he very high wages made possible by a closed, non-competitive market. The US government responded by

 上海千花网品茶微信imposing quotas on the import of Japanese cars and by pushing Japan to rapidly raise the value of the yen.

Obviously, there was a conflict. American consumers benefitted from the cheaper, better cars while workers at the big three saw their jobs become less secure and the

ir wages fall. Fortunately, the protection was only partial and temporary, so the competition eventually forced US carmakers to improve.

Competition is at the heart of the current disputes over globalization and technology. On net, the spread of econo 上海千花网品茶微信

mic opportunities around the world has been a great boon. Many products are more widely and cheaply available than ever before.

Many countries, including China and India, have greatly reduced poverty and given opportunities to their people that would have been undreamed of by earlier ge 上海千花网

nerations. American and Western European companies and consumers have greatly benefitted.

But nobody really likes competition against themselves. Most people like some degree of stability and protection. A worker w

ho has put in 20 or 30 years in an industry will definitely feel that it is unfair to have to move to a much lower-pa

ying service job. A company facing new competitors will try to convince its home government to stop the competition.

Americans saw many benefits from the second globalization period. As Japanese and, later Chinese, manufacturers began to export t

o the US, many consumer goods became a lot cheaper in US stores. Many American companies made good profits by exporting t

o the newly open markets or by outsourcing manufacturing to cheaper and/or better factories outside the US.

www.zaojiaowg.com

Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Foreign Ministry

d China has always called for resolving trade tensions with the US through dia

上海千花坊logue and consultation, but it will firmly safeguard its own legitimate interests.

US threats to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports cannot intimidate the Chinese people, Geng added.上海千花坊

Gao said China’s stance toward tariffs is clear, that the country has always opposed

unilaterally imposed tariffs. “The US trade bullying eventually hurts its own businesses and consumers,” he said.上海千花坊女神会所

The “unreliable entities” list-a blacklist of foreign parties that, for noncom

上海千花坊mercial reasons, harm the interests of Chinese companies, will be released soon,

Gao said. Companies that abide by Chinese law and the spirit of contracts have nothing to worry about, he said.

上海千花坊女神会所Zhou Mi, deputy director of the Institute of American and Oceania Studies of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Eco

nomic Cooperation, said it is necessary for China to push forward with the list of “unreliable entities,” and export restriction measures.

“These moves will bring about institutional improvement,” Zhou said. “They are

上海千花坊女神会所not meant to punish any company, but to guide all market entities to abide by the laws, regulations and commercial con

tracts. They can further level the playing field for both homegrown and foreign companies.”上海千花坊

In a recent survey, a majority of US and Chinese consumers expressed strong su

pport for bilateral trade due to a belief that both countries benefit from the exchan

ge of goods, said Mei Yan, senior partner and China chair at advisory firm Brunswick Group.上海千花坊

The online survey was conducted among 1,000 US consumers and 1,000 Chinese consumers in early June.

qiuLuhuang.cn

About 57 percent of the respondents said they hop

 that instead of imposing ideas on their children, parents should learn more about what their ch

ildren want, according to the survey, which covered 1,953 unmarried young people.

According to Ling Zi, a marriage consultant, it does more harm than good for parents to be overly involved in children’s ma

rriages. “It shows the distrust of the parents, and transfers their anxiety to their children,” said Ling.

It has become common in China for pushy parents to look for spouses for their children who are too busy or slow in finding love, the paper said.

s the race to replace Theresa May as Conservative Party leader and British prime minister reach

es the final two candidates, China Daily looks at the candidates: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt.

Johnson has long been one of the loudest voices supporting Brexit, a

nd had the backing of Donald Trump. Hunt is a converted Remain supporter.

After Conservative MPs narrowed 10 candidates down to the final tw

o, it is now up to party members nationwide to choose the next occupant of 10 Downing Street.

www.vnynui.cn

If Pyongyang accele上海千花坊女神会所nuclearization pro

ome countries 上海千花坊女神会所should reciprocate its actions by giving it security guarantee, w

hich would create an opportunity for it to develop its economy. And once its economic co

nditions improve, Pyongyang will depend less on nuclear power to safeguard its security.

Moreover, after talks with Pyongyang, Beijing could convey some of its messages to the leaders of other rela

ted countries at the G20 summit, in order to promote multilateral talks with the aim of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.

President Xi Jinping encouraged a group of elite student athletes to make greater contributions

to China’s goal of developing into a stronger sporting nation as he replied to a letter they sent to him.

Xi wrote to students of the 2016 class of Beijing Sport University’s champ

ions’ postgraduate program on Tuesday to urge them to keep working hard to sho

ulder greater responsibility in the development of the country’s sporting culture and athletic prowess.

www.ecimy.cn

d other leaders of the Sha上海千花网女神会所n Organizatio

member count上海千花网女神会所ries and observer states, as well as r

epresentatives of regional and international bodies, head for group photo

s during the 19th meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, June

Xi called for joint efforts to fight the three evil forces — terrorism, separatism and extremism — as well as be

efing up security measures and halting the flow of terrorists and extremist forces.

Noting that Afghanistan is a neighbor of SCO countries and an important observer state in the organiz

ation, Xi said the SCO firmly supports an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led peace and reconciliation process.

SCO countries should cultivate new cooperation areas in such fields

as digital economy, ecommerce, artificial intelligence and big data, he said.

www.shejio.org

Three years after he was filmed taking part in the

bike protest, Sau上海419论坛品茶微信di authorities arrested Qureiris, then just 13 years old. He was traveling with his fami

ly to Bahrain when he was detained by Saudi border authorities on the King Fahd causeway that connects the two countries.

At the time, he was considered by lawyers and activists to be the youngest known political prisoner in Saudi Arabia.

Now, at the age of 18, Qureiris is facing the death penalty after being

held for almost four years in pre-trial detention, CNN has learned.n April, Saudi Arabia anno

unced it had executed 37 men who, according to rights group Reprieve, were mostly from the kingdom’s Shia minor

ity. The country has one of the highest rates of execution in the world, and has frequently been criticized by rig

hts groups for executing people who were minors at the time of the commission of crimes.

Qureiris was 10 years old when he committed at least one of those alleged crimes in his charge sheet, CNN has learn

ed. He was charged with accompanying his activist brother, Ali Qureris, on a motorcycle ride to a police sta

tion in the eastern Saudi city of Awamiya, where Ali allegedly threw Molotov cocktails at the facility.

www.qsnsjb.org

inopec establish joint venture with Russian companie

hina Petrole上海会所品茶微信um and Chemical Corp, the world’s larg

est refiner by volume, has agreed to establish a joint venture with Russia’s Novatek and Gazp

rombank to market natural and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China, Sinopec said on Thursday.

The agreement, which aims to sell LNG produced by Novatek in the Arctic, was signed fo

llowing talks in Moscow between Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President, Xi Jinping.

The agreement will be of considerable economic and social benefit an

d will further diversify China’s natural gas imports, while meeting ever-increasing ga

s demand in the country, said Dai Houliang, China Petrochemical Corp president.

www.aaart.org.cn

mier Li Keqiang presides over a State Council meeting on

上海会所品茶微信Premier Li Keqiang called for greater strides in reform and opening-up to stimulate market vitality and to tra

nsform and upgrade economic structure in revitalizing the rust belt in Northeast China.

Li’s remarks came as he presided over a State Council meeti

ng on Thursday on revitalizing the country’s traditional industrial bases.

He underscored the importance of transforming government functions a

nd bettering the business environment, and urged government departments to offer m

ore support to provinces in the Northeast in streamlining administration.

The tax cuts and fee reduction policies must be implemented in full, and the country w

ill make the region a priority in special transfer payments to localities, he said.

The reform of State-owned enterprises must be moved forwa

rd, and more work must be done to expand the private sector, he said.

changjiangjiaoxiang.cn

Minister General Wei Fenghe speaks at the Shangri-La Dialo

The People’s Liberation Army will adamantly support regional and world peace, but will not be

“bullied or preyed upon” by foreign powers into giving up national sovereignty and legitimate int

erests, State Councilor and Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe said on Sunday in Singapore.

Experts said Wei’s speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a key defense summ

it, marked a milestone in Chinese military diplomacy as Wei showcased the PLA’s confide

nce, positions on key issues and its sincerity and willingness to exchange and cooperate with other countries.

It is the first time in eight years that a Chinese defense minister has participated in the event.

Building a community with a shared future for mankind is the right path forward an

d the trend of the times amid growing uncertainty and instability around the world, he said.

www.zsdbv.cn